Big Jump Foreseen in Ranks of the Poor

Rising unemployment could push an additional 7.5 million to 10.3 million United States residents below the federal poverty line over the next two or three years, a research group has estimated, based on the experience of the last three recessions and the latest projections of job losses.

If the analysis is correct, this would be the largest jump in the poverty rate since the prolonged recession of the early 1980s, when the number of poor people climbed to 35 million from 26 million over four years. Milder recessions in the early 1990s and in 2001 caused significant but lesser increases.

In 2007, according to the Census Bureau, 37.3 million residents, or 12.5 percent of the population, lived below the poverty line, which is currently $21,200 for a family of four. But economists say the total is sure to rise over the coming years, and if the private budget center’s estimates hold true, the number of poor people could approach 50 million.

The budget center’s estimates assume that unemployment will rise to 9 percent by the end of 2009.
NYT